Brazil economy at a glance

Latest figures for Brazil: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Brazil on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	4.6%	September 2026	4.2% August 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	4.3%	August 2026	4.4% July 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	2.0%	Q2 2026	1.8% Q1 2026
Policy rate (Banco Central do Brasil)	13.75%	November 2026	13.75% October 2026
Unemployment rate	5.2%	September 2026	5.3% August 2026
10-year government bond yield	15.42%	October 2026	14.16% September 2026
Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing PMI)	46.1	October 2026	44.8 September 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	0.4%	August 2026	1.3% July 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	−1.2%	August 2026	−0.5% July 2026
Stock market (Ibovespa)	166,192	November 2026	+4.5% over 12 months

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Brazil?

Brazil's annual inflation rate was 4.6% in September 2026, up from 4.2% in August 2026.

What is the interest rate in Brazil?

The Banco Central do Brasil Selic target, Copom is 13.75% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 9 December 2026.

How fast is Brazil's economy growing?

Brazil's real GDP grew 2.0% year on year in Q2 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Brazil?

Brazil's unemployment rate was 5.2% in September 2026, down from 5.3% in August 2026.

What is Brazil's 10-year government bond yield?

Brazil's 10-year government bond yield averaged 15.42% in October 2026.

How much government debt does Brazil have?

Brazil's government debt is about 78.6% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 8.3% of GDP.

What is Brazil's credit rating?

Brazil's sovereign credit ratings: S&P BB, Moody's Ba1, Fitch BB.

What is the VAT rate in Brazil?

No single VAT: state ICMS normally 17%-20% (Sao Paulo 18%), federal PIS/COFINS 3.65% or 9.25%, IPI, municipal ISS 2%-5%. 2026 is the pilot year of the CBS/IBS reform.

What is the corporate tax rate in Brazil?

Brazil's corporate income tax rate is 34.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Brazil?

Brazil is led by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (head of state and government); re-elected on 25 Oct 2026 for a fourth term starting 5 Jan 2027. Next election: Municipal elections (mayors and city councils) in October 2028; next general election (president, Congress, governors) in October 2030.

Outlook

The IMF's October 2026 WEO expects growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with inflation averaging 4.4% in 2026; the central bank's Focus survey, taken before the run-off, saw 1.8% growth this year. Lula's unexpected re-election set off a sharp repricing on 26 October: stocks fell 14%, the real lost about 8% and the 10-year yield jumped to about 15.5%, which tightens financial conditions and could add to inflation through a weaker currency. The Copom paused its rate cuts at 13.75% on 4 November, and the first post-election Focus survey raised inflation and rate forecasts and cut growth expectations. The upside is a credible fiscal plan and a market-friendly economic team that reverse part of the sell-off; the downside is looser spending with gross debt near 83% of GDP, the energy-price shock and the manufacturing slump (PMI 46.1).

Why Brazil matters for the world economy

Brazil is the top global exporter of soybeans, coffee, sugar, beef and chicken, and a large supplier of iron ore and crude oil. Its harvests and output therefore move world food and raw-material prices, and China takes almost 29% of its goods exports. Argentina, which buys about 5% of Brazil's exports, is the most exposed neighbour through Mercosur manufacturing links. With the Selic at 13.75% and inflation near 4.6%, Brazilian real rates are among the highest in the world, so the real is a core carry-trade currency. Its roughly 8% one-day fall after Lula's re-election, the largest since 1999, spilled into regional assets: Argentina's country risk rose about 8% the same day.

Politics

Lula won the 25 October run-off with about 51.8% of valid votes to 48.2% for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who had led the first round, and starts a fourth term on 5 January 2027. Bolsonaro first vowed to seek annulment, citing a court-ordered extension of voting hours, but the electoral court confirmed the result and his team now says it will pursue lawsuits seeking to strip the Lula-Alckmin ticket of its mandate for alleged abuse of power instead. Centrao parties have recognised the result. Lula will face a right-leaning Congress in which Bolsonaro's PL holds the largest blocs in both chambers. Markets had bet on a Bolsonaro win and sold off sharply on 26 October, so the choice of finance minister and a credible fiscal anchor are now the main economic questions.

System: Federal presidential republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$2,280 billion
Population: 213.0 million
Government debt: 78.6% of GDP
Budget balance: −8.3% of GDP
Current account: −3.0% of GDP
Exports: 17.8% of GDP
Main exports: Soybeans and soymeal, crude oil, iron ore, sugar, coffee, beef and chicken, maize, pulp, aircraft
Top export markets: China (28.7%), United States (10.9%), Argentina (5.2%), Netherlands (3.4%), Spain (2.5%)
IMF growth forecast: 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 4.4% in 2026, 4.1% in 2027
Currency: BRL
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (BRL 44,111 a year) pays about 20.0% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 27.5%
Gold reserves: 172.4 tonnes (September 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 112% (2024)

Recent news

4 November 2026 Brazil's central bank pauses rate cuts, holding the Selic at 13.75% Rio Times
The Copom voted unanimously to keep the Selic at 13.75%, ending a run of five quarter-point cuts. It cited higher inflation expectations, a more uncertain outlook and dearer oil, said policy will stay restrictive, and did not say how long the pause will last.
4 November 2026 Formal job creation slows to its weakest September on record Rio Times
Brazil added a net 121,305 formal jobs in September, about a quarter below forecasts and down 43.5% from a year earlier, the weakest September since the series began in 2020. August was revised down to about 161,000.
3 November 2026 Brazilian stocks hit a one-year low as forecasters raise inflation and rate views Trading Economics
The Ibovespa fell 1.5% to 165,362 after a holiday, its lowest in a year. The first Focus survey since the election raised forecasts for inflation, interest rates and the dollar and cut growth expectations, and Petrobras fell 4% as oil dropped.
3 November 2026 Brazil's factory slump eases slightly in October but output keeps falling Trading Economics / S&P Global
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 from 44.8, still well below 50. Output fell for a sixth month and new orders for a 19th, though cost pressures eased and business confidence hit a nine-month high.
26 October 2026 Brazilian stocks have worst day in six years and the real slumps after Lula's win Exame
The Ibovespa fell 13.9% to 176,608, triggering a trading halt, and the dollar jumped 8.2% to about R$5.40, the biggest daily rise since 1999. Investors had bet on a Bolsonaro win and now fear looser fiscal policy; banks and domestic-focused stocks fell hardest while exporters such as Suzano and Embraer gained.
26 October 2026 Treasury cancels bond sales and buys back debt as rate-cut bets vanish Rio Times
With long-term interest rates up about 1.8 percentage points, the Treasury bought back about R$7.1bn of fixed-rate bonds and cancelled this week's fixed-rate and inflation-linked auctions. Prediction markets swung to a pause in rate cuts at the 4 November Copom meeting.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.