Estonia economy at a glance

Latest figures for Estonia: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Estonia on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	3.6%	October 2026	3.1% September 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	1.4%	October 2026	1.4% September 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	2.2%	Q3 2026	1.8% Q2 2026
Policy rate (European Central Bank)	2.50%	November 2026	2.50% October 2026
Unemployment rate	8.0%	September 2026	7.8% August 2026
10-year government bond yield	4.09%	September 2026	3.83% August 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	4.0%	September 2026	6.1% August 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	6.0%	September 2026	4.5% August 2026
Wages (year on year)	5.5%	Q2 2026	6.2% Q1 2026
House prices (year on year)	5.8%	Q2 2026	5.9% Q1 2026
Stock market (OMX Tallinn (OMXTGI))	2,248	November 2026	+15.5% over 12 months

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Estonia?

Estonia's annual inflation rate was 3.6% in October 2026, up from 3.1% in September 2026.

What is the interest rate in Estonia?

The European Central Bank deposit facility rate is 2.50% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 17 December 2026.

How fast is Estonia's economy growing?

Estonia's real GDP grew 2.2% year on year in Q3 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Estonia?

Estonia's unemployment rate was 8.0% in September 2026, up from 7.8% in August 2026.

What is Estonia's 10-year government bond yield?

Estonia's 10-year government bond yield averaged 4.09% in September 2026.

How much government debt does Estonia have?

Estonia's government debt is about 24.0% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 2.0% of GDP.

What is Estonia's credit rating?

Estonia's sovereign credit ratings: S&P A+, Moody's A1, Fitch A+.

What is the VAT rate in Estonia?

Estonia's standard VAT rate is 24% (2026 rules).

What is the corporate tax rate in Estonia?

Estonia's corporate income tax rate is 22.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Estonia?

Estonia is led by Kristen Michal (Reform Party), Prime Minister; head of state President Ülle Madise. Next election: Riigikogu (parliamentary) election in March 2027.

Outlook

The IMF (Oct WEO) expects growth to pick up to 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 after the 2023–24 recession, with inflation around 3%. The government highlights rising real wages, manufacturing and exports. Downside risks come from the September rebound in inflation to 3.1%, high energy and heating costs from the Gulf shock, a fragile labour market and political uncertainty before the March 2027 election. Upside comes from stronger Nordic demand and defence-related investment.

Why Estonia matters for the world economy

Estonia is too small to move global aggregates. Its relevance is as a NATO frontline state on the Russian border, where hybrid incidents, Baltic Sea cable and pipeline security and Russian gas-transit decisions affect European risk premia. It is closely tied to Finland (its largest export market, linked by power and gas interconnectors) and to the other Baltic states, and its banking system is dominated by Swedish lenders. Through tech firms such as Wise and Bolt and its digital-government model, it has an outsized profile in European services and fintech.

Politics

Michal heads a Reform–Eesti 200 government that ERR describes as a minority government. On 19 October it survived an opposition no-confidence motion that won only 34 of 101 votes, because the Social Democrats stayed out. The opposition leads the polls before the March 2027 election: Norstat's latest survey (5 Oct–1 Nov) put the Centre Party (24.2%) just ahead of Isamaa (23%), while the governing Reform and Eesti 200 polled only 13.2% together. Parliament elected Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise as president on 2 September, and she was sworn in on 12 October. The government campaigns on its income-tax cut, real wage gains and defence spending of about 5% of GDP.

System: Unitary parliamentary republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$47 billion
Population: 1.4 million
Government debt: 24.0% of GDP
Budget balance: −2.0% of GDP
Current account: 0.3% of GDP
Exports: 78.4% of GDP
Main exports: Electrical equipment and electronics, wood and timber products, mineral fuels (oil-shale products), machinery, furniture, food; ICT and transport services
Top export markets: Finland (14.7%), Latvia (10.9%), Sweden (8.5%), Lithuania (8.5%), Germany (7.4%)
IMF growth forecast: 2.1% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 3.0% in 2026, 3.3% in 2027
Currency: EUR
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (EUR 25,104 a year) pays about 34.0% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 22.0%
Gold reserves: 0.2 tonnes (July 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 20% (2024)

Recent news

4 November 2026 Estonian inflation climbs to 3.6% in October on energy costs ERR News
Statistics Estonia's flash estimate showed consumer prices up 3.6% on the year and 0.6% on the month in October. Economists blamed dearer electricity and higher oil and gas prices linked to the Persian Gulf conflict, and expect price rises to speed up in the coming months.
4 November 2026 Centre Party overtakes Isamaa in Estonia's latest election poll ERR News
A Norstat poll covering 5 October to 1 November put the opposition Centre Party on 24.2%, its highest since July 2020, ahead of Isamaa on 23% and the Social Democrats on 17.4%. The governing Reform and Eesti 200 parties together polled just 13.2% before the March 2027 election.
30 October 2026 Estonia's economy grows 2.2% in the third quarter, flash estimate shows ERR News
Statistics Estonia's flash estimate put annual GDP growth at 2.2% in the third quarter, faster than in the second. An SEB economist said recovering exports and household spending, helped by wage growth of nearly 6%, probably drove the gain.
27 October 2026 Estonian consumers turn much gloomier in October as firms grow more upbeat ERR News
Statistics Estonia's consumer confidence indicator fell to -32.4 from -23.5 in September as households took a darker view of their finances and the economy. Confidence improved in trade, services and industry, while construction stayed the weakest sector at -3.8.
19 October 2026 Michal's minority government survives no-confidence vote ERR News
An opposition motion backed by Isamaa, EKRE and Centre won only 34 votes in the 101-seat Riigikogu. The Social Democrats and several independents did not join it.
17 October 2026 Reform Party opens its election campaign on a growth message ERR News
PM Michal told his party that the economy is growing about twice as fast as the EU average and credited the income-tax cut. He noted that defence spending has reached 5% of GDP ahead of the March 2027 vote.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.