Bulgaria economy at a glance

Latest figures for Bulgaria: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Bulgaria on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	6.0%	October 2026	5.6% September 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	4.5%	October 2026	4.2% September 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	2.8%	Q2 2026	2.9% Q1 2026
Policy rate (European Central Bank (deposit facility rate) from 1 Jan 2026; Bulgarian National Bank base rate before that)	2.50%	November 2026	2.50% October 2026
Unemployment rate	3.4%	September 2026	3.5% August 2026
10-year government bond yield	4.09%	September 2026	4.09% August 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	5.7%	September 2026	5.9% August 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	−5.4%	August 2026	−6.8% July 2026
Wages (year on year)	9.9%	Q2 2026	13.2% Q1 2026
House prices (year on year)	15.5%	Q2 2026	14.8% Q1 2026
Stock market (SOFIX (Bulgarian Stock Exchange))	1,522	October 2026

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Bulgaria?

Bulgaria's annual inflation rate was 6.0% in October 2026, up from 5.6% in September 2026.

What is the interest rate in Bulgaria?

The European Central Bank (deposit facility rate) from 1 Jan 2026; Bulgarian National Bank base rate before that policy rate is 2.50% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 17 December 2026.

How fast is Bulgaria's economy growing?

Bulgaria's real GDP grew 2.8% year on year in Q2 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Bulgaria?

Bulgaria's unemployment rate was 3.4% in September 2026, down from 3.5% in August 2026.

What is Bulgaria's 10-year government bond yield?

Bulgaria's 10-year government bond yield averaged 4.09% in September 2026.

How much government debt does Bulgaria have?

Bulgaria's government debt is about 29.9% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 4.0% of GDP.

What is Bulgaria's credit rating?

Bulgaria's sovereign credit ratings: S&P BBB+, Moody's Baa1, Fitch BBB+.

What is the VAT rate in Bulgaria?

Bulgaria's standard VAT rate is 20% (2026 rules).

What is the corporate tax rate in Bulgaria?

Bulgaria's corporate income tax rate is 10.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Bulgaria?

Bulgaria is led by Prime Minister Rumen Radev (Progressive Bulgaria; in office since 8 May 2026); President Iliana Iotova (head of state since Jan 2026; won a full term in the 1 Nov 2026 run-off). Next election: Next regular parliamentary election due in 2030.

Outlook

The IMF (Oct 2026 WEO) expects growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, and Fitch forecasts 2.8% and 2.9%, driven by consumption, wage growth and EU-funded investment. The main concerns are overheating and the budget: Fitch sees inflation averaging 4.9% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 and a current-account deficit near 7.4% of GDP, while Eurostat's October data put the 2025 deficit at 4.0% of GDP, with a reservation still to be settled. A credible 2027 budget and fiscal-structural plan, which were due to Brussels by 15 Oct, and a smooth presidential run-off on 1 Nov are upside risks that could trigger a Fitch upgrade. On the downside, further energy-price spikes, fiscal slippage or political friction if the government's candidate loses would add to inflation and competitiveness pressures.

Why Bulgaria matters for the world economy

Bulgaria is a small, very open economy whose main global significance is as the euro area's newest member: its changeover inflation, wage boom and loose fiscal stance are being watched as a test case for future enlargement and for the ECB's one-size policy. It is a Black Sea NATO state and an energy corridor, carrying TurkStream gas toward Serbia and Hungary and forming part of the north-south Vertical Corridor with Greece and Romania. Its Burgas refinery and copper smelting make fuels and refined copper key exports. Supply links run mainly to Germany, Romania, Italy, Greece and Turkey, and a more Russia-friendly majority government could matter for EU unity on sanctions and on aid to Ukraine.

Politics

After years of repeated snap elections, Bulgaria has its first single-party majority since 1997. Former president Rumen Radev resigned in January 2026, founded Progressive Bulgaria and won 131 of 240 seats in the 19 April snap election. Incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by his party and the Socialists, then won the 1 November presidential run-off with 57.6% against 39.5% for PP-DB-backed former caretaker PM Andrey Gyurov, after a first round on turnout of only about 22%. Her win keeps the presidency on the government's side and removes the risk of a no-confidence push after a defeat. The government is more cautious on Russia and Ukraine than its predecessors. The key economic issue is fiscal: Bulgaria joined the euro on 1 Jan 2026 but is in an EU excessive-deficit procedure, with a 2025 deficit of 4.0% of GDP (Eurostat) and a planned 2026 deficit of 5.7%.

System: Unitary parliamentary republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$131 billion
Population: 6.4 million
Government debt: 29.9% of GDP
Budget balance: −4.0% of GDP
Current account: −5.7% of GDP
Exports: 50.7% of GDP
Main exports: Refined petroleum products, refined copper and copper ores, electricity, wheat, sunflower seeds and seed oils, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment and car parts, machinery and metals
Top export markets: Germany (13.5%), Romania (11.1%), Italy (8.0%), Greece (6.0%), Turkey (5.4%)
IMF growth forecast: 2.6% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 4.9% in 2026, 4.8% in 2027
Currency: EUR
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (EUR 15,972 a year) pays about 26.3% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 10.0%
Gold reserves: 41.0 tonnes (September 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 52% (2024)

Recent news

4 November 2026 Bulgarian inflation climbs to 6.0%, among the euro area's highest Eurostat
Eurostat's flash estimate put Bulgaria's annual inflation at 6.0% in October, up from 5.6% in September and well above the euro-area average of 4.0%, as energy prices jumped across the bloc.
4 November 2026 Bulgaria's regulated gas price jumps 32.5% in November BTA
The energy regulator approved a November gas price of €58.43 per MWh for public supplier Bulgargaz, 32.5% above October, citing international market prices. Without extra gas drawn from storage, the rise would have been about 40%.
4 November 2026 Opposition says Bulgaria's government weighed tapping private pension savings for the deficit BTA
Democratic Bulgaria published Commission correspondence it says shows the government discussed redirecting second-pillar pension contributions to cover the budget deficit. PM Radev denies any such plan was discussed or will be in the budget.
3 November 2026 Iotova wins Bulgaria's presidency with 57.6% in the run-off BTA
The election commission declared incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by PM Radev's Progressive Bulgaria, elected with 57.6% of the vote against 39.5% for former caretaker PM Andrey Gyurov, backed by PP-DB, in the 1 November run-off.
25 October 2026 Iotova and Gyurov head to a 1 November presidential run-off BTA
Incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by PM Radev's party, took about 34.8% in the first round against 32.0% for opposition-backed economist Andrey Gyurov, a far closer race than polls had suggested. Fewer than a quarter of voters turned out, and the top two meet again on 1 November.
21 October 2026 Eurostat puts Bulgaria's 2025 deficit at 4.0% and flags a data reservation Eurostat
Eurostat's autumn fiscal release shows Bulgaria's 2025 budget deficit at 4.0% of GDP, above the EU's 3% limit, with debt at 29.9%. It placed a reservation on the data over how road-agency operations worth 0.6% of GDP are recorded, so the figure could still change.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.