Poland economy at a glance

Latest figures for Poland: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Poland on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	3.5%	October 2026	4.1% September 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	3.1%	September 2026	3.3% August 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	4.0%	Q2 2026	3.6% Q1 2026
Policy rate (National Bank of Poland)	3.75%	November 2026	3.75% October 2026
Unemployment rate	5.8%	September 2026	5.8% August 2026
10-year government bond yield	6.23%	September 2026	5.81% August 2026
Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI)	50.0	October 2026	49.0 September 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	3.3%	September 2026	3.8% August 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	4.6%	September 2026	4.0% August 2026
Stock market (WIG20)	4,181	October 2026

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Poland?

Poland's annual inflation rate was 3.5% in October 2026, down from 4.1% in September 2026.

What is the interest rate in Poland?

The National Bank of Poland NBP reference rate is 3.75% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 2 December 2026.

How fast is Poland's economy growing?

Poland's real GDP grew 4.0% year on year in Q2 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of 3.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Poland?

Poland's unemployment rate was 5.8% in September 2026, unchanged from August 2026.

What is Poland's 10-year government bond yield?

Poland's 10-year government bond yield averaged 6.23% in September 2026.

How much government debt does Poland have?

Poland's government debt is about 59.7% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 7.3% of GDP.

What is Poland's credit rating?

Poland's sovereign credit ratings: S&P A-, Moody's A3, Fitch A-.

What is the VAT rate in Poland?

Poland's standard VAT rate is 23% (2026 rules).

What is the corporate tax rate in Poland?

Poland's corporate income tax rate is 19.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Poland?

Poland is led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Civic Coalition-led coalition); President Karol Nawrocki (PiS-backed, in office since August 2025). Next election: Parliamentary (Sejm and Senate) elections in autumn 2027 (Moody's refers to November 2027).

Outlook

Growth should stay among the EU's strongest: Moody's sees 3.7% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, S&P 3.3% and 2.9%, and the government assumes 3% for 2027, supported by EU-funded investment (+8.4% y/y in Q2) and defence outlays. The main downside risks are fiscal: deficits around 7% of GDP, debt heading toward 70%, an S&P review in November, and little consolidation before the 2027 election. Energy-driven inflation above the NBP's 2.5% ±1pp band has made the MPC hawkish, so further rate cuts are off the table for now and hikes are a tail risk. Weak German manufacturing also keeps the Polish factory PMI below 50.

Why Poland matters for the world economy

Poland is the largest economy in Central and Eastern Europe and deeply integrated into German-centred manufacturing (car parts, batteries, appliances, furniture). Germany alone takes over a quarter of its exports, so German industrial demand and Polish output move together. As NATO's frontline state, spending about 4.5% of GDP on defence, it is the main logistics hub for aid to Ukraine and a major buyer of US and South Korean weapons. Its widening deficits and the Moody's downgrade make Polish government bonds and the zloty a bellwether for CEE sovereign risk. The 2026 energy shock feeds through quickly via fuel prices, which drove September inflation to 4.1%.

Politics

Tusk's broad coalition is in a running standoff with President Nawrocki, who has vetoed several revenue measures, including tax rises, although he signed a bank levy. This leaves little room to cut a general-government deficit of about 7% of GDP. The draft 2027 budget (28 Aug 2026) keeps the deficit at 7.1% of GDP, with defence at 4.5% of GDP and a record nominal shortfall. Moody's cut the rating to A3 in September, and Fitch keeps a negative outlook. With the 2027 election approaching, markets expect little fiscal consolidation, while growth stays strong at about 3.5–4%.

System: Unitary semi-presidential parliamentary republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$1,036 billion
Population: 36.4 million
Government debt: 59.7% of GDP
Budget balance: −7.3% of GDP
Current account: −1.0% of GDP
Exports: 50.0% of GDP
Main exports: Vehicle parts and cars, lithium-ion batteries, machinery and electrical equipment, furniture and seats, plastics, food products
Top export markets: Germany (27.8%), Czechia (6.6%), France (5.7%), United Kingdom (4.9%), Italy (4.6%)
IMF growth forecast: 3.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 3.2% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027
Currency: PLN
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (PLN 106,843 a year) pays about 33.5% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 36.0%
Gold reserves: 672.9 tonnes (September 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 47% (2024)

Recent news

4 November 2026 NBP holds at 3.75% but sharply raises its 2027 inflation forecast ING Think
Poland's central bank kept its reference rate at 3.75%, as expected. Its new projection sees inflation at about 4.2% in 2027, up from 2.7% in July, before it eases to about 2.9% in 2028; growth is put at about 3.7% this year.
3 November 2026 Government-backed judges take control of Poland's disputed constitutional court Notes from Poland
After a senior judge declared the PiS-era chief justice suspended on 30 October, eight judges appointed this year held an assembly and started disciplinary steps against him. President Nawrocki calls it an illegal takeover and blames Tusk.
2 November 2026 Polish factory PMI reaches 50, ending 17 months of contraction S&P Global via Trading Economics
S&P Global's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in October from 49.0, the first reading at the no-change line in 17 months. Export orders and hiring grew again, though input costs rose at the fastest pace since June.
30 October 2026 Fuel tax cuts pull Polish inflation down to 3.5% in October money.pl / PAP
Flash GUS data showed consumer prices up 3.5% on a year earlier, down from 4.1% in September and below the 3.7% analysts expected. Economists credit the return of lower fuel taxes, while energy prices kept rising.
22 October 2026 Junior coalition party leader quits Tusk government after failed vote Notes from Poland
Funds minister Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz resigned after 15 coalition MPs helped sink a bill scrapping term limits for mayors. Her Poland 2050 party stays in the coalition, preserving Tusk's majority a year before the election.
21 October 2026 Polish consumer confidence falls to a six-month low GUS via Trading Economics
GUS's current consumer confidence indicator dropped to -14.0 in October from -10.8, the weakest since April, as views of both the present and the future soured, a sign that 4% inflation is weighing on households.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.