Lithuania economy at a glance

Latest figures for Lithuania: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Lithuania on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	6.1%	October 2026	6.1% September 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	3.7%	October 2026	3.9% September 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	2.3%	Q3 2026	3.9% Q2 2026
Policy rate (European Central Bank)	2.50%	November 2026	2.50% October 2026
Unemployment rate	6.2%	September 2026	6.1% August 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	5.6%	September 2026	3.5% August 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	7.4%	September 2026	4.6% August 2026
House prices (year on year)	14.3%	Q2 2026	11.9% Q1 2026
Stock market (OMX Vilnius (OMXVGI))	1,490	November 2026	+16.3% over 12 months

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Lithuania?

Lithuania's annual inflation rate was 6.1% in October 2026, unchanged from September 2026.

What is the interest rate in Lithuania?

The European Central Bank deposit facility rate is 2.50% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 17 December 2026.

How fast is Lithuania's economy growing?

Lithuania's real GDP grew 2.3% year on year in Q3 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Lithuania?

Lithuania's unemployment rate was 6.2% in September 2026, up from 6.1% in August 2026.

How much government debt does Lithuania have?

Lithuania's government debt is about 39.3% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 1.8% of GDP.

What is Lithuania's credit rating?

Lithuania's sovereign credit ratings: S&P A, Moody's A2, Fitch A+.

What is the VAT rate in Lithuania?

Lithuania's standard VAT rate is 21% (2026 rules).

What is the corporate tax rate in Lithuania?

Lithuania's corporate income tax rate is 17.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Lithuania?

Lithuania is led by Mindaugas Sinkevičius (Social Democrats), Prime Minister; head of state President Gitanas Nausėda. Next election: Seimas election due October 2028.

Outlook

Activity is robust: GDP is up about 3.8% y/y in 2026Q2 (seasonally adjusted), and the Finance Ministry's March scenario sees 3.1% growth in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. That scenario's 3.7% inflation call for 2026 has already been overtaken by HICP inflation of 6.1% in September. The main risks are entrenched inflation and wage pressure, a widening budget deficit of about 4% of GDP in 2027 that may force tax rises and draw rating-agency scrutiny, higher ECB rates, and security shocks on the Belarus border. Upside comes from strong investment, EU funds and defence-industry projects.

Why Lithuania matters for the world economy

Lithuania's wider importance is strategic rather than economic. It borders Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and sits beside the Suwałki corridor, so drone incursions, hybrid sabotage and NATO deployments there (including the German brigade) feed directly into European security risk. Its Klaipėda LNG terminal and the Orlen refinery serve Baltic and Polish energy needs, and it is a niche supplier of lasers and fintech services. Trade spillovers fall mainly on Latvia, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Estonia, and Nordic banks are the main financial channel.

Politics

A Social Democrat-led government, now headed by Mindaugas Sinkevičius, sent its draft 2027 budget to parliament in October. Spending exceeds revenue by about €6bn, and the deficit is projected at about 4% of GDP in 2027, nearing 5% in 2028, because of defence spending of almost €5bn plus higher pensions and public wages. Economists and the opposition warn that tax rises will become unavoidable, and coalition partners' proposals for higher excise and gambling taxes were rejected. Security is the other dominant theme: the PM blamed Russia for an attempted arson attack on a firm storing Starlink equipment on 18 October, and a drone from Poland crashed in Lithuania the same day.

System: Semi-presidential republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$95 billion
Population: 2.9 million
Government debt: 39.3% of GDP
Budget balance: −1.8% of GDP
Current account: 0.9% of GDP
Exports: 73.0% of GDP
Main exports: Refined petroleum products, furniture and wood products, plastics and chemicals (fertilisers), food and agricultural products, machinery and electronics (incl. lasers), re-exported vehicles; transport services
Top export markets: Latvia (12.4%), Poland (10.2%), Germany (9.0%), Netherlands (6.6%), Estonia (6.1%)
IMF growth forecast: 2.7% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 5.4% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027
Currency: EUR
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (EUR 28,932 a year) pays about 23.8% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 32.0%
Gold reserves: 5.8 tonnes (September 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 12% (2024)

Recent news

4 November 2026 Orlen weighs dropping its Mažeikiai refinery upgrade, raising the risk of closure LRT
Polish group Orlen said it may abandon the troubled modernisation of its Mažeikiai refinery, the Baltic region's only oil refinery, and that the plant could then have to close. Its local unit, Orlen Lietuva, is Lithuania's largest taxpayer and employs more than 1,500 people.
4 November 2026 PM orders a review of windfall taxes on energy companies LRT
Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius told the energy, finance and economy ministers to assess energy firms' profits in fuel, electricity and heating and to propose windfall-tax measures by 9 November. The finance minister doubts such a tax would raise much and warns it could strain ties with Poland.
30 October 2026 Lithuania's economy shrinks 1.0% in the third quarter, its first fall since 2022 Trading Economics
A flash estimate showed GDP down 1.0% on the quarter after 1.4% growth in the second, the first quarterly fall since late 2022. Annual growth slowed to 1.8% from 4.1% as construction, IT and communications, and transport services weakened.
27 October 2026 Lithuanian industry and retail sales pick up in September Trading Economics / Statistics Lithuania
Industrial output rose 7.4% on a year earlier, up from a revised 4.6% in August and led by manufacturing, while retail sales grew 5.6% after 3.5%. Activity is holding up even with inflation above 6%.
24 October 2026 Fitch keeps Lithuania at A+ with a stable outlook LRT
Fitch affirmed the rating it raised in April, citing a credible policy framework, euro membership and resilient growth. It expects the budget deficit to widen above 3% of GDP in the near term and debt to reach 54.3% of GDP by 2029.
20 October 2026 Draft 2027 budget pushes deficit toward 4% of GDP LRT
The government's first budget under Finance Minister Taurimas Valys has spending about €6bn above revenue, with almost €5bn for defence. The deficit is seen near 4% of GDP next year and about 5% in 2028, and economists warn that tax rises will become unavoidable.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.