Romania economy at a glance

Latest figures for Romania: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Romania on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	6.6%	September 2026	6.2% August 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	7.0%	September 2026	7.3% August 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	−1.9%	Q2 2026	−1.4% Q1 2026
Policy rate (National Bank of Romania)	6.50%	November 2026	6.50% October 2026
Unemployment rate	6.3%	September 2026	6.4% August 2026
10-year government bond yield	6.71%	September 2026	6.43% August 2026
Manufacturing PMI (BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global))	48.7	October 2026	50.9 September 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	1.2%	August 2026	−6.4% July 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	−2.6%	August 2026	−6.2% July 2026
Wages (year on year)	1.8%	Q2 2026	3.8% Q1 2026
House prices (year on year)	12.1%	Q2 2026	7.8% Q1 2026
Stock market (BET (Bucharest Stock Exchange))	34,708	October 2026

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Romania?

Romania's annual inflation rate was 6.6% in September 2026, up from 6.2% in August 2026.

What is the interest rate in Romania?

The National Bank of Romania monetary policy rate is 6.50% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 12 November 2026.

How fast is Romania's economy growing?

Romania's real GDP grew −1.9% year on year in Q2 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of −0.5% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Romania?

Romania's unemployment rate was 6.3% in September 2026, down from 6.4% in August 2026.

What is Romania's 10-year government bond yield?

Romania's 10-year government bond yield averaged 6.71% in September 2026.

How much government debt does Romania have?

Romania's government debt is about 58.9% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 7.8% of GDP.

What is Romania's credit rating?

Romania's sovereign credit ratings: S&P BBB-, Moody's Baa3, Fitch BBB-.

What is the VAT rate in Romania?

Romania's standard VAT rate is 21% (2026 rules).

What is the corporate tax rate in Romania?

Romania's corporate income tax rate is 16.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Romania?

Romania is led by Prime Minister Luca Niculescu (independent diplomat; minority cabinet of PSD ministers and independents, sworn in 20 Oct 2026); President Nicușor Dan (independent, in office since May 2025). Next election: Parliamentary elections due in 2028; no early election has been called.

Outlook

The IMF (Oct 2026 WEO) expects GDP to shrink 0.5% in 2026 before recovering 2.2% in 2027, and S&P has the same profile (-0.5% then +2.25%), as austerity and high inflation squeeze household spending while EU-funded investment holds up. Inflation should keep falling as the 2025 tax and energy shocks drop out of the annual comparison. The NBR projected about 6.1% for December 2026 and 3.4% by end-2027, which could open room for rate cuts in 2027 if energy prices allow. The main downside risks are political and fiscal: a weak minority government, pre-election spending ahead of the 2028 polls, and declining EU inflows from 2027 could derail deficit cuts and trigger a downgrade to junk. A credible 2027-28 budget, by contrast, could stabilise the rating outlooks.

Why Romania matters for the world economy

Romania is a small economy globally, but it is one of the largest sovereign borrowers among European emerging markets, with heavy euro and dollar bond issuance and high non-resident ownership of its debt. A loss of investment grade would make it the first EU state to fall to junk in years and could unsettle regional EM bond indices and CEE spreads. Through Dacia/Renault, Ford Otosan's Craiova plant and many car-parts and electrical suppliers, it is tied into German, French and Italian manufacturing chains. Its banking system is largely owned by Austrian, French and Italian groups (Erste, Raiffeisen, Société Générale, UniCredit). Romania is also a NATO frontline state and, via the port of Constanța, a transit route for Ukrainian grain. Germany, Italy, France and Hungary are its most exposed trade partners.

Politics

Romania went almost six months without a fully empowered government after the PSD quit the ruling coalition and, with the far-right AUR, toppled PM Ilie Bolojan on 5 May 2026. On 20 Oct parliament approved a minority cabinet led by independent diplomat Luca Niculescu by 280 votes to 58. PSD ministers and independents hold the posts, two centre-right parties of the former coalition have agreed not to file no-confidence motions before March 2027, and the PSD will review its support after six months. The government promises a budget revision, a 2027 budget by December and no tax rises from 2027. The stakes are high: Romania ran the EU's largest deficit in 2025 (7.8% of GDP), and all three agencies rate it one notch above junk with negative outlooks, so a failed 2027 budget could cost it investment grade.

System: Unitary semi-presidential republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$429 billion
Population: 19.0 million
Government debt: 58.9% of GDP
Budget balance: −7.8% of GDP
Current account: −8.0% of GDP
Exports: 35.2% of GDP
Main exports: Vehicles and car parts, electrical machinery and equipment, metals and metal products, plastics and rubber, cereals and other agri-food products, refined petroleum, furniture and wood products
Top export markets: Germany (18.4%), Italy (8.5%), France (7.0%), United Kingdom (4.8%), Hungary (3.9%)
IMF growth forecast: −0.5% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 8.2% in 2026, 4.1% in 2027
Currency: RON
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (RON 119,616 a year) pays about 37.3% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 10.0%
Gold reserves: 103.6 tonnes (September 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 68% (2024)

Recent news

30 October 2026 Romania's new government adopts its first budget revision amid a 'very fragile balance' Revista Biz
The Niculescu cabinet approved a 2026 budget revision adding 3.2bn lei for health insurance, 3.5bn lei for pension transfers and about 2bn lei to clear local arrears, while total spending falls slightly. Finance Minister Nazare plans a second revision by 30 November.
26 October 2026 Romania's nine-month budget deficit narrows to 3.81% of GDP Agerpres
The cash deficit for January to September was RON 78.3bn, down from 5.31% of GDP a year earlier, as revenues rose 11.9% and spending 5.5%. The government's full-year target is 6.2% of GDP.
20 October 2026 Parliament approves Niculescu's minority government, ending months of deadlock Reuters via The Star
Lawmakers backed the cabinet of independent diplomat Luca Niculescu by 280 votes to 58, well above the 233 needed. The PSD-backed government must pass a deficit-cutting 2027 budget by December to protect Romania's last investment-grade rating.
15 October 2026 Social Democrats agree to run a minority cabinet under technocrat Niculescu Romania Insider
The PSD decided to take 12 of 18 ministries in a minority government led by independent Luca Niculescu, with the Liberals and the Hungarian UDMR pledging support from outside. The vote was set for 20 Oct, and the cabinet promises a deficit review and revised 2026 budget by 1 Nov and a 2027 draft by 1 Dec.
13 October 2026 Fuel prices push Romanian inflation back up to 6.6% INS via Trading Economics
Annual CPI inflation rose to 6.6% in September from 6.2% in August, above forecasts, as petrol and diesel prices climbed about 28-38% y/y. Services inflation eased slightly to 11.1%.
9 October 2026 Final data show Romania's economy flat in Q2, with investment booming and consumption falling INS via Trading Economics
INS revised Q2 2026 GDP to -0.2% y/y (unadjusted) and 0.0% q/q. Fixed investment jumped almost 20% on EU-funded projects, while household spending fell 3.1%.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.