Mexico economy at a glance

Latest figures for Mexico: inflation, growth, interest rates, jobs, bond yields, debt and taxes. Updated 6 November 2026. Open Mexico on the interactive map →

Key figures

Indicator	Latest	Period	Previous
Inflation (consumer prices, year on year)	3.5%	September 2026	3.3% August 2026
Core inflation (excluding food and energy)	3.8%	September 2026	3.9% August 2026
Real GDP growth (year on year)	3.2%	Q3 2026	1.9% Q2 2026
Policy rate (Banco de Mexico)	6.25%	November 2026	6.50% October 2026
Unemployment rate	2.6%	September 2026	2.7% August 2026
10-year government bond yield	9.25%	October 2026	9.35% September 2026
Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI)	49.5	October 2026	50.3 September 2026
Retail sales (year on year)	3.3%	August 2026	1.8% July 2026
Industrial production (year on year)	3.5%	August 2026	2.7% July 2026
Stock market (S&P/BMV IPC)	71,088	November 2026	+11.8% over 12 months

Questions and answers

What is the inflation rate in Mexico?

Mexico's annual inflation rate was 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.3% in August 2026.

What is the interest rate in Mexico?

The Banco de Mexico target for the overnight interbank rate is 6.25% (as of November 2026). The next rate decision is due on 17 December 2026.

How fast is Mexico's economy growing?

Mexico's real GDP grew 3.2% year on year in Q3 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

What is the unemployment rate in Mexico?

Mexico's unemployment rate was 2.6% in September 2026, down from 2.7% in August 2026.

What is Mexico's 10-year government bond yield?

Mexico's 10-year government bond yield averaged 9.25% in October 2026.

How much government debt does Mexico have?

Mexico's government debt is about 61.7% of GDP (latest annual figure), with a budget deficit of 4.1% of GDP.

What is Mexico's credit rating?

Mexico's sovereign credit ratings: S&P BBB, Moody's Baa3, Fitch BBB-.

What is the VAT rate in Mexico?

Mexico's standard VAT rate is 16% (2026 rules).

What is the corporate tax rate in Mexico?

Mexico's corporate income tax rate is 30.0% (2026 rules).

Who leads Mexico?

Mexico is led by President Claudia Sheinbaum (head of state and government). Next election: Federal midterm elections (Chamber of Deputies, plus state and municipal races), 6 June 2027.

Outlook

The IMF's October 2026 WEO sees growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 after 0.5% in 2025, with inflation averaging 3.8% in 2026. Banxico's own 2026 forecast was 1.1% as of August. The upside is a USMCA deal that lifts tariff uncertainty, together with the recovery in industrial output (+3.5% y/y in August) and the PMI returning above 50. The downside is a breakdown of the review or new US tariffs, an energy-driven inflation rebound that keeps Banxico on hold at 6.50%, and a possible rating downgrade if fiscal consolidation and Pemex support disappoint.

Why Mexico matters for the world economy

Mexico sends about 82% of its goods exports to the US. It is the largest US trading partner and a central link in North American auto, electronics, medical-device and agri-food supply chains, so US tariff decisions and the USMCA review pass straight through Mexican factories to US and Canadian producers. It is a main nearshoring destination for firms moving production out of China, and a large buyer of US natural gas and refined fuels. The peso is one of the most liquid EM currencies and is widely used as a hedge for broader EM and US-trade risk.

Politics

Sheinbaum's Morena-led coalition controls Congress, so domestic policy faces little legislative resistance. The main economic-political issue is the USMCA joint review. As of 12 October Mexico said there was progress but no final agreement: Washington offers a 10-year extension with annual reviews, while Mexico and Canada want 16 years. US tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminium and 25% on cars remain in place. The 2027 budget, sent to Congress on 8 September, promises gradual fiscal consolidation and sharply lower support for Pemex. Rating agencies keep Mexico one notch above junk and watch this budget closely.

System: Federal presidential republic.

Economy and taxes

GDP: US$1,833 billion
Population: 133.0 million
Government debt: 61.7% of GDP
Budget balance: −4.1% of GDP
Current account: −0.4% of GDP
Exports: 39.6% of GDP
Main exports: Machinery and electronics, vehicles and auto parts, electrical equipment, medical devices, crude oil, fresh produce
Top export markets: United States (81.9%), Canada (3.3%), China (1.5%), Germany (1.2%), South Korea (0.8%)
IMF growth forecast: 1.5% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027
IMF inflation forecast: 3.8% in 2026, 3.6% in 2027
Currency: MXN
Freelancer tax: A self-employed person earning the average wage (MXN 219,608 a year) pays about 11.0% of it in income tax and social contributions (2026 rules)
Top income tax rate: 35.0%
Gold reserves: 120.0 tonnes (September 2026)
Energy self-sufficiency: 76% (2024)

Recent news

5 November 2026 Banxico cuts its target rate to 6.25% in a split 3-2 vote Banco de México
The Bank of Mexico's board cut the overnight interbank rate target by 25 basis points to 6.25%, effective 6 November; Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath voted to hold at 6.50%. The board called the cut a one-off adjustment and said keeping the rate at this level for a prolonged time will help bring inflation to target, which it still expects in the fourth quarter of 2027. It noted that the peso had weakened since the September decision.
3 November 2026 Congress passes a 2027 tax law that limits deductions for big companies Rio Times
Deputies voted 349 to 92 to approve the 2027 income tax law, which limits deductions and the use of past losses for firms earning over 50 million pesos and cuts deductible interest. Carmakers and fuel sellers are exempt; the US Chamber of Commerce warned it could cut investment and jobs.
3 November 2026 Mexico's factory PMI slips back below 50 in October Trading Economics / S&P Global
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.3, as output dropped at the fastest pace in six months and factories cut jobs faster. New orders still rose for a sixth month and export orders returned to growth.
30 October 2026 Mexico's economy grows faster than expected in the third quarter Trading Economics / INEGI
A preliminary estimate showed GDP up 0.9% on the quarter, above the 0.7% expected, and 3.2% on the year, the fastest annual pace in three years. Services led, industry grew 0.8% and farming shrank, while exports of electronics linked to AI supply chains boomed.
27 October 2026 Truckers lift highway blockades after a day in exchange for talks Latin Times
The Canacar-led strike that began on 26 October ended the next day, when the interior ministry agreed to five permanent working groups on security, infrastructure, taxes, social security and labour. Cargo theft, often violent, continues on federal highways.
26 October 2026 Truckers strike over highway crime and a tax change Rio Times
The freight chamber Canacar called an indefinite strike over cargo theft, extortion and a cut to a toll tax credit, with protests in about 20 states. Organisers say US$1.8bn of trade crosses by road each day; the government called the striking group small and kept talks open.

Headlines and summaries are compiled daily from the linked reports with AI assistance.